Setting expectations for Red Wings' top prospects in 2024-25 (2024)

The start of NHL training camps is now, mercifully, just one month away.

Of course, the Detroit Red Wings still have some important business to handle before they take the ice on Sept. 19, with contracts still needed for Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Jonatan Berggren. But the final-month home stretch is a good time to start looking ahead to the coming season. And for a team starting to emerge from a long rebuild, among the most interesting players to watch will be the top prospects, some of whom may be ready to challenge for NHL time as soon as this season.

Here’s what to expect from some of Detroit’s top prospects this season, across all levels.

Note: I’ve excluded defensem*n Simon Edvinsson and Albert Johansson here, as both players are expected to make the NHL roster and be up for the full season.

Nate Danielson

Expected level: AHL

Analysis: Danielson does have an outside chance to earn NHL time this year, especially if he can wow the team’s decision-makers in the preseason. He was already impressive in exhibitions last fall, but upping his impact this time around — with something actually on the line — would leave Detroit’s brass with a fascinating decision.

Realistically, barring injuries, Danielson would probably need to show he’s ready for a top-six role to start the year in Detroit. And while that kind of statement in the preseason can’t be totally ruled out, the Red Wings’ recent history suggests he’s more likely to play with the AHL Griffins — where he would assuredly get big minutes and play in key situations.

The transition from junior hockey to the AHL shouldn’t be overlooked, as evidenced by Danielson’s quiet showings upon joining the team last postseason. But he has the speed, IQ and competitiveness to make a fairly quick transition to pro hockey. Offensive production will be one key factor to watch, though, especially when assessing Danielson’s prospects as a potential long-term No. 2 center.

If you’re looking for statistical benchmarks, a very promising outcome would be around 0.8 points per game from Danielson — that’s roughly the level at which Martin Necas (0.81) and Kyle Connor (0.85) produced as AHL rookies in their draft-plus-two seasons. And considering Necas and Connor are offense-first players who were already more used to playing against men — coming from European pro hockey and college, respectively — even a number slightly below that range would be encouraging for Danielson’s long-term projection.

Marco Kasper

Expected level: AHL, with some NHL time

Analysis: Kasper finished strong in his first AHL season — particularly in the playoffs, where his hard-nosed game translated to seven points in nine playoff games. And while he has an outside shot at making the NHL roster right away with a big camp, the best bet is on him starting in Grand Rapids again, looking to pick up where he left off.

Point production is only one piece of the way Kasper will be evaluated, but certainly Detroit would take as much offense as it can get from the 2022 No. 8 pick, who put up 35 points in 71 games last season. Increasing that rate would be encouraging, and if he could creep up toward that same 0.7 or 0.8 points-per-game territory, that would be excellent — that’s the range where ace shutdown centers Anthony Cirelli (.73) and Lars Eller (.81) were in their draft-plus-three seasons in the AHL.

And of course, that comes with Kasper continuing to look like a strong defensive center who won’t be pushed around, and one who keeps possessions alive in the offensive zone — the bedrocks of his profile.

He has a good chance to work his way into becoming a call-up at some point this year.

Carter Mazur

Expected level: AHL and NHL

Analysis: Mazur is the player on this list who I feel has the strongest chance to make the NHL roster on opening night, and the one I’d pick to play the most NHL games this season.

Some of that is his age: At 22, there’s less incentive to keep him down for additional AHL reps, especially after he was arguably the Griffins’ best player in the AHL playoffs. Some of it, too, is how naturally he could slot into a bottom-six role — whether with Andrew Copp and Michael Rasmussen on Detroit’s third line, or even on a fourth line that could have some offensive elements with Joe Veleno and/or Berggren. Mazur can play a gritty game by going to the hard areas and scoring around the net or he can shoot it from distance, and that versatility should help him.

He’ll need to show he’s ready to actually make an impact, though, and ideally he’d arrive at camp with some added weight on his frame. He was listed at 175 pounds last season and looked a bit thin considering how physically he likes to play. His waiver-exempt status may make it harder for him to force out an existing roster player, too. That could lead to him starting the season in Grand Rapids.

Mazur is a likeable player, though, with a game that should earn trust from the coaches. I’d expect him to get a relatively early call-up and find a way to stick around.

Michael Brandsegg-Nygård

Expected level: SHL or AHL

Analysis: According to a translated interview from Norway, Brandsegg-Nygård is expected to come to Red Wings training camp this fall. That’s unusual for European players, whose seasons start earlier than they do in North America, but it will certainly make camp more interesting.

Still, don’t expect him to make the NHL right away, as that kind of leap is typically reserved for top-three picks. The big question is whether Brandsegg-Nygård would go to the SHL or AHL following camp. He’s already signed his entry-level contract, so Detroit will have some say, but the Red Wings certainly haven’t had a problem with their players developing in Sweden in recent years. His SHL team, Skellefteå, are the reigning SHL champions. On the other hand, if Detroit is encouraged by Brandsegg-Nygård’s camp, it’s not inconceivable they’d want to keep him close by.

Wherever he is, though, the Red Wings are going to want to see Brandsegg-Nygård score. His big shot is one of his calling cards to go with his big frame and mature game. They’ll also want him to polish his skating, which can be powerful but not always as fluid as you’d prefer.

In the AHL, Buffalo’s Jiri Kulich and JJ Peterka and Vegas’ Alexander Holtz are the recent gold standard for goal scoring among U20 rookies, all having scored north of 25 goals. Anything above 15 in the AHL, though, would put him in good company with Necas (16) and Kevin Fiala (18).

But if he’s back in Sweden, where goals (and ice time) can be hard to come by, the numbers will be harder to interpret — even Raymond had only six goals and 18 points in 34 games the year after he was drafted.

Axel Sandin-Pellikka

Expected level: SHL

Analysis: Sandin-Pellikka had a very productive age-18 season, with 10 goals and 18 points in 39 games for league champion Skellefteå. Improving his defense will be important as he develops to play the kind of big minutes you want from a first-round pick, but the offensive end is still where he’ll make his name.

Nils Lundkvist has the all-time U20 scoring mark among SHL defensem*n with 31 points in 45 games, and Sandin-Pellikka may be able to challenge that in 2024-25 — or Seider’s 28 in 41, which ranks second. He certainly has a chance to break the league’s all-time U20 goals record for a defender, which currently sits at 11 (Lundkvist and Tomas Jonsson), just one more than Sandin-Pellikka scored last season.

But the difference between Seider’s trajectory since then and Lundkvist’s does underscore the importance of Sandin-Pellikka continuing to round out his game beyond the offensive end and the power play. The points are most valuable when there’s substance backing them up all over the ice.

Sebastian Cossa

Expected level: AHL

Analysis: Cossa had a strong rookie season in the AHL in 2023-24, turning in a .913 save percentage in 40 starts for the Griffins — edging out both Yaroslav Askarov (.911) and Jesper Wallstedt (.910). That was a big statement for the 21-year-old first-round pick.

Now, he projects to get an even bigger workload in Year 2. And more than any one number as a benchmark, the keys for Cossa will be consistency and cleaning up the occasional head-scratchers surrounding him early in his career.

If he can do that, it’s not unreasonable to think he could be in the Red Wings plans a year from now — and maybe even get a couple of NHL looks late this season if the circ*mstances call for it.

Trey Augustine

Expected level: NCAA

Analysis: Augustine is coming off an excellent season at Michigan State in which he led the Spartans to a Big Ten Championship with a .915 save percentage. Now, it’s about building on that early success as he continues to develop.

Goalies can be quite dependent on the teams in front of them, so it’s hard to really hold them to a benchmark. If you’re looking for one, though, raising his save percentage into the .920-.925 territory would be a great sign — that’s where Jeremy Swayman (.921) and Thatcher Demko (.925) were at age 19 in college. There are plenty of factors in save percentage, though, and the stat can be deceiving for that reason. Remember Filip Larsson’s .932 freshman season at Denver? The evaluation has to go beyond the numbers.

Augustine is a different style of goalie than Cossa — crisper and more controlled in his movements, albeit without the same dazzling athleticism — and has the potential to develop into an NHL goaltender over time. But even if the technical polish might make it tempting to move him along quicker, there’s plenty of value in Augustine soaking up reps in East Lansing this year, and maybe even the following season, too. For reference, both Demko and Swayman did three college years before turning pro.

Shai Buium

Expected level: AHL

Analysis: After a three-year NCAA career that included two national championships, Buium turned pro late last season and should be a regular on the Griffins blue line.

He put up 36 points in 43 games last season for the Pioneers, eighth-most among NCAA defensem*n, and has some offense in his game. His NHL path, though, probably hinges more on whether he can be a legit defensive stopper against pros. At 6-foot-3, he has the length to do so, and while his skating has been the big question around his game, I thought it looked improved at development camp. We’ll now see how it holds up against AHL pace.

If Buium can make stops and create some secondary offense in a top-four role, he can distinguish himself going forward on a crowded left side of the defense pipeline.

And really, the same goes for William Wallinder, another big-bodied blueliner who had his ups and downs as an AHL rookie last year. Wallinder’s skating is better, but like Buium, he’ll be looking to show he can make stops and help move play north. The Grand Rapids blue line as a whole should be interesting once again.

(Top photo of Nate Danielson: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

Max Bultman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Detroit Red Wings. He has also written for the Sporting News, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Max is a graduate of the University of Michigan, where he covered Michigan football and men's basketball. Follow Max on Twitter @m_bultman